TORMENTA TROPICAL ODETTE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH BANDING FEATURES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE GENESIS OF THIS OFF-SEASON SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...WE WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 025/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NHC GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003

...OFF-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLANDS AND SAMANA CAY AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N... 76.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN DEC 7 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

17.5N 74.7W      40 X X X 40   MUCM 214N 779W     X 4 1 X 5
21.0N 73.5W       1 20 2 X 23   MDPP 198N 707W     X 9 6 1 16
25.0N 70.5W       X 1 13 4 18   MBJT 215N 712W     X 10 8 1 19
MDSD 185N 697W     X 3 5 1 9   MYMM 224N 730W     X 14 6 1 21
MDCB 176N 714W     4 10 1 1 16   MYSM 241N 745W     X 7 8 1 16
MTPP 186N 724W    10 12 1 X 23   MYEG 235N 758W     X 7 5 1 13
MTCA 183N 738W    27 5 X X 32   MYAK 241N 776W     X 1 3 X 4
MKJP 179N 768W    17 4 X X 21   MYNN 251N 775W     X 1 2 X 3
MKJS 185N 779W     3 5 X X 8   BERMUDA            X X X 13 13
MUGM 200N 751W     7 17 X X 24

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI
C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003

...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST STORM TO FORM IN THE CARIBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER. AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL TRACK BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING ODETTE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...14.0 N... 75.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM EST SUN DEC 7 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

18.5N 74.0W      40 X X X 40   MUGM 200N 751W    16 9 1 X 26
22.0N 72.5W       2 18 6 X 26   MUCM 214N 779W     X 3 1 X 4
28.0N 68.0W       X X 10 X 10   MDPP 198N 707W     4 13 4 X 21
MDSD 185N 697W     1 6 3 X 10   MBJT 215N 712W     1 16 7 X 24
MDCB 176N 714W    16 5 1 X 22   MYMM 224N 730W     1 18 6 X 25
MTPP 186N 724W    28 3 X X 31   MYSM 241N 745W     X 9 7 X 16
MTCA 183N 738W    42 X X X 42   MYEG 235N 758W     X 8 3 X 11
MKJP 179N 768W    14 3 X X 17   MYAK 241N 776W     X 1 1 X 2
MKJS 185N 779W     2 3 X X 5   MYNN 251N 775W     X 1 1 X 2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
C FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
D FROM 1PM SAT TO 1PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003

...ODETTE RE-LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS
ARE DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA LATER TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...14.0 N... 75.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...ODETTE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND JAMAICA... AND FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EASTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF ODETTE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...14.5 N... 74.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST MON DEC 8 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

17.6N 72.7W      41 X X X 41   MUGM 200N 751W     4 10 1 X 15
20.5N 70.5W       1 21 8 X 30   TJSJ 184N 661W     X 1 2 X 3
26.7N 65.5W       X X 11 X 11   MDPP 198N 707W     2 23 6 X 31
TJPS 180N 666W     X 1 2 X 3   MBJT 215N 712W     X 19 10 X 29
MDSD 185N 697W     3 17 5 X 25   MYMM 224N 730W     X 11 6 X 17
MDCB 176N 714W    28 6 X X 34   MYSM 241N 745W     X 1 2 X 3
MTPP 186N 724W    27 9 X X 36   SAN JUAN PR        X 1 2 X 3
MTCA 183N 738W    33 3 X X 36   PONCE PR           X 1 2 X 3
MKJP 179N 768W     5 3 X X 8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL- ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW.

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE TO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN 1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 14.2N 74.2W    45 KT
12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 73.7W    50 KT
24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 72.5W    55 KT
36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.0N 71.0W    30 KT
48HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N 67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A 50 MPH TROPICAL STORM...

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO ISLA SAONA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OR WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...14.2 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM EST MON DEC 8 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

17.0N 72.5W      52 3 X X 55   MUGM 200N 751W     X 5 1 X 6
20.0N 71.0W       X 33 7 X 40   TJSJ 184N 661W     X X 2 X 2
23.5N 67.0W       X X 18 X 18   MDPP 198N 707W     X 32 8 X 40
TJPS 180N 666W     X X 2 X 2   MBJT 215N 712W     X 15 18 X 33
MDSD 185N 697W     2 21 7 X 30   MYMM 224N 730W     X 3 9 X 12
MDCB 176N 714W    29 16 1 X 46   SAN JUAN PR        X X 2 X 2
MTPP 186N 724W    13 32 1 X 46   PONCE PR           X X 2 X 2
MTCA 183N 738W    13 23 X X 36

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN
D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...COR FOR RPT SECTION MOTION AND LONGITUDE

...ODETTE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI AND JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OR WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...14.2 N...73.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...ODETTE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OR WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONG WINDS OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ODETTE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...15.0 N... 73.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM EST MON DEC 8 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

19.0N 71.5W      32 X X X 32   MTCA 183N 738W    23 X X X 23
21.0N 69.5W       3 13 2 X 18   MUGM 200N 751W     3 2 X X 5
24.5N 65.0W       X X 8 X 8   TJSJ 184N 661W     X 4 7 X 11
SVBS 157N 636W     X X 2 X 2   MDPP 198N 707W    19 4 1 X 24
TKPK 173N 627W     X X 2 X 2   MBJT 215N 712W     5 12 1 X 18
TNCM 181N 631W     X X 3 X 3   MYMM 224N 730W     2 9 1 X 12
TISX 177N 648W     X 1 5 X 6   MYSM 241N 745W     X 2 1 X 3
TIST 183N 650W     X 2 5 X 7   ST CROIX VI        X 1 5 X 6
TJPS 180N 666W     X 6 5 X 11   ST THOMAS VI       X 2 5 X 7
MDSD 185N 697W    19 3 X X 22   SAN JUAN PR        X 4 7 X 11
MDCB 176N 714W    44 X X X 44   PONCE PR           X 6 5 X 11
MTPP 186N 724W    35 1 X X 36

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
C FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN
D FROM 1PM SUN TO 1PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...ODETTE CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 7 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM... SOUTHWEST OF ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...16 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OR WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO ODETTE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EST POSITION...15.2 N... 73.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM EST.

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA. PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 15.3N 72.7W    45 KT
12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.7N 71.8W    45 KT
24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 70.6W    30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 67.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N 62.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ODETTE SOMEWHAT FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER...RAINBANDS MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE OVER HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE ODETTE NEARS HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA EARLY SATURDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...15.3 N... 72.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST.

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD
BAND TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995
MB. HOWEVER THE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT THE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
LOWER. ODETTE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR ODETTE TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND
GUNA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.2N 71.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.0N 71.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 68.7W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 08/0000Z 25.5N 64.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 58.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW.

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

...ODETTE NEARING HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

LATEST FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ODETTE HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...SOON WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON HIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER USTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 71.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

...ODETTE HESITATES...BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ODETTE HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...SOON WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 72.0W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

CORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE

THE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH VERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS ANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL      06/2100Z 17.5N 71.8W    55 KT
12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 71.5W    30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N 68.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N 64.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

...ODETTE LASHING ISLA BEATA AND THE BARAHONA PENINSULA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ISLA BEATA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ODETTE ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT SOME STATIONS HAVE ALREADY MEASURED 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...17.5 N... 71.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM EST TUE DEC 9 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

21.5N 68.5W      39 2 X X 41   MTCA 183N 738W    21 X X X 21
24.5N 64.5W       X 18 4 X 22   TJSJ 184N 661W     2 4 X X 6
27.5N 59.5W       X X 11 X 11   MDPP 198N 707W    66 X X X 66
TNCM 181N 631W     X 1 1 X 2   MBJT 215N 712W    28 1 X X 29
TISX 177N 648W     X 2 X X 2   BERMUDA            X X 2 X 2
TIST 183N 650W     X 3 1 X 4   ST CROIX VI        X 2 X X 2
TJPS 180N 666W     2 2 X X 4   ST THOMAS VI       X 3 1 X 4
MDSD 185N 697W    50 X X X 50   SAN JUAN PR        2 4 X X 6
MDCB 176N 714W    99 X X X 99   PONCE PR           2 2 X X 4
MTPP 186N 724W    74 X X X 74

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

...ODETTE LASHING ISLA BEATA AND THE BARAHONA PENINSULA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 7 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. THIS POSITION IS AT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JUST EAST OF THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ODETTE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES ...230 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ODETTE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT SOME STATIONS HAVE ALREADY MEASURED 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EST POSITION...17.8 N... 71.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM EST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

...ODETTE MOVES INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...16 KM...SOUTH OF BARAHONA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK ODETTE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODDETE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME OVER LAND TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

ADDITONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY ON SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...18.3 N... 71.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM EST TUE DEC 9 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

23.0N 66.5W      35 3 X X 38   TJSJ 184N 661W     2 1 X X 3
25.8N 62.3W       X 20 2 X 22   MDPP 198N 707W    68 X X X 68
29.0N 57.0W       X X 12 2 14   MBJT 215N 712W    15 X X X 15
TJPS 180N 666W     2 X X X 2   BERMUDA            X X 2 X 2
MDSD 185N 697W    70 X X X 70   SAN JUAN PR        2 1 X X 3
MDCB 176N 714W    99 X X X 99   PONCE PR           2 X X X 2
MTPP 186N 724W    45 X X X 45

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON
C FROM 7AM MON TO 7PM MON
D FROM 7PM MON TO 7PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

...ODETTE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD AND FOR HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...MAY OCCUR LOCALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND OVERNIGHT AND THEN RE-STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER HAITI. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...SHOULD BE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...18.8 N... 70.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM EST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

...ODETTE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR NEAR SANTIAGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD BE SUBSIDING THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...19.4 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ODETTE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST WED DEC 10 2003

LOCATION           A B C D E   LOCATION           A B C D E

24.0N 65.0W      33 3 X X 36   MDCB 176N 714W     5 X X X 5
26.7N 60.4W       X 19 2 X 21   MTPP 186N 724W     4 X X X 4
29.0N 55.0W       X X 12 2 14   MDPP 198N 707W    99 X X X 99
MDSD 185N 697W    99 X X X 99

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE
D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

...ODETTE ENTERS THE ATLANTIC...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 7 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...230 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

ODETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND BECOME XTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES ...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

ADDITONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EST POSITION...20.3 N... 69.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1000 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM EST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003

...ODETTE RAPIDLY MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL...

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ODETTE NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS RAPIDLY MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH ...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...21.3 N... 68.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER AVILA

ODETTE HACIA COSTA DE PEDERNALES Y BARAHONA
Tormenta afecta hoy territorio nacional 3:07:00 AM
Alerta de inundaciones para el Sur, Suroeste, Oeste y Noroeste, incluyendo toda la región afectada recientemente por aguaceros

La tormenta tropical Odette, con vientos de 85 kilómetros por hora, penetraría esta noche a territorio dominicano en una zona entre Barahona y Pedernales, por lo que las autoridades mantienen el alerta, dijo anoche el vicealmirante Radhamés Lora Salcedo, presidente del Comité Nacional de Emergencias (CNE).

Lora Salcedo dijo que las regiones que fueron recientemente inundadas por las lluvias podrían ser nuevamente afectadas.

Informó que las presas del país "están siendo operadas profesionalmente y oportunamente, por lo que no hay riesgo en ese sentido".

Aseguró que las presas se encuentran generando electricidad de forma adecuada, suministrando agua para el consumo industrial y doméstico manteniendo los niveles apropiados, de manera que no representan peligro para la ciudadanía.

De acuerdo con el Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, la tormenta Odette, a las diez de la noche se movía a 16 kilómetros por hora en dirección nordeste, por lo que se espera que coloque su centro cerca de la Beata en la mañana de hoy.

Meteorología dijo que fue localizada a 15.6 de latitud norte y 73.1 longitud oeste a 290 kilómetros al sudoeste de la isla Beata.

Los vientos más fuertes se mantienen en 85 kilómetros por hora. Las ráfagas se extienden hasta 230 kilómetros de su centro y la presión mínima en su centro es de 995 milibares.

Meteorología informó anoche a las diez que bandas de lluvia asociadas con Odette descargan lluvias sobre el oeste del país y se comenzaban a sentir en la región oriental.

Se espera que caigan entre 125 y 250 milímetros de lluvia, esto es, entre 125 y 250 litros por cada metro cuadrado de territorio.

Agregó que las lluvias podrían ser más intensas hacia las áreas montañosas a medida que la tormenta se acerque al territorio dominicano. Meteorología hizo mención específica de la zona fronteriza.

Meteorología advirtió a los residentes de la costa sur, el suroeste, oeste y noroeste que deben esperar fuertes lluvias, inundaciones y deslizamientos de tierra, principalmente en la zona montañosa.

También advirtió que deben permanecer en puerto las pequeñas embarcaciones en todas las costas del país. Explicó que se espera que las condiciones marinas se irán deteriorando en las próximas horas.

El Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Miami informó anoche que la tormenta Odette tenía su centro bastante desorganizado todavía, aunque se observó mejor definido en el cuadrante oeste.

Un frente frío que barre desde el centro de Estados Unidos hacia el Caribe afectó el desarrollo de Odette ayer, según el boletín del Centro de Huracanes de Miami, pero aún así se espera que aumente su intensidad antes de que llegue a las costas de La Hispaniola.

Ayer a las seis de la tarde el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Miami esperaba que Odette tocara esta isla dentro de las siguientes 12 a 24 horas. Se espera que se pueda convertir en una tormenta extratropical en las próximas 24 a 36 horas.

Anoche se mantenía el aviso de vigilancia de huracán para las islas Bahamas y las Turcas y Caicos, ubicadas al norte de La Hispaniola.

Un cable de la agencia noticiosa española EFE daba cuenta anoche que Odette estaba azotando a Haití con fuertes lluvias que podrían producir inundaciones repentinas y deslaves de las montañas.

Odette es una tormenta fuera de temporada. La temporada ciclónica anualmente se estima entre el primero de junio y el 30 de noviembre, y Odette se formó cuatro días después de concluida.

Es también atípica porque normalmente la trayectoria de las tormentas en esta parte del mundo es hacia el oeste, pero Odette ha seguido, inicialmente un curso norte, y posteriormente lo varió al nordeste.

Desde 1984 no se había formado otra tormenta fuera de la temporada. Ese año se formó Lili en el Golfo de México.

Para que Odette llegue a ser huracán deberán rotar sus vientos con velocidad de más 118 kilómetros por hora.

Lora Salcedo dijo que está confiado en que los residentes de esas zonas que serán afectadas por las lluvias seguirán atentamente las orientaciones que suministrará el CNE.

Advirtió a los residentes del Bajo Yuna, Los Peinados, Los Contreras, Arenoso y Villa Riva para que tomen precauciones.

Dijo que en otros lugares próximos se le ha solicitado a las personas se refugien en lugares seguros, utilizando familiares y amigos que residen fuera de los lugares que peligran por las inundaciones.

Además recomendó "que duerman con un ojo abierto y otro cerrado, para no ser sorprendidos por la lluvia y ráfagas de viento” los residentes en “Santiago y la línea Noroeste".

Informó que los refugios son conocidos, "pero hemos orientado a la ciudadanía para que preferiblemente utilicen a sus familiares, amigos y vecinos, para facilitar más el trabajo de la CNE."

Reportan primeros daños causados por la tormenta 2:41:00 AM
LUIS M. CÁRDENAS - Redactor de Hoy

La tormenta Odette destruyó parcialmente casas ayer en Polo, Barahona, mientras que derribó cables y postes del tendido eléctrico desde Azua hasta Enriquillo, dejando sin energía una amplia zona, además de que once personas resultaron heridas en la región Este y obligó a evacuar a 4,500 en todo el país.

En Polo, Barahona, cinco casas fueron afectadas por los derrumbes, mientras que en Enriquillo, fueron derribados árboles y postes del tendido eléctrico.

En Azua una torre metálica de cables de alta tensión cayó y quedó sin energía una amplia zona desde esa ciudad hasta Barahona.

Hasta anoche a las 10:00 había en albergues de 4,322 personas, reveló la Comisión Nacional de Emergencias (CNE). Los heridos son consecuencia de accidentes automovilísticos ocurridos en la carretera de San Pedro de Macorís, se indicó.

En un accidente por deslizamiento del vehículo debido a la humedad y las precipitaciones en la carretera de San Pedro de Macorís resultaron heridos dos dominicanos y nueve italianos.

Entre los heridos se encuentran los dominicanos Damián Norman, Virgilio Ciprián y los italianos Gabriela Mauro, Sindi Lorenzo, Sandra Teresa, M. Roberto, Paulino Roberto, F. Sergio, Baroni Oredana, Alexandra y Daniela.

En Barahona, 722 familias afectadas fueron ubicadas en los refugios escuela Club de Leones del barrio Las Flores, Escuela Irma Tejeda del Batey Central, Iglesia Evangélica de la avenida Luperón, Iglesia de Los Mormones del barrio Enriquillo y la Iglesia Adventista.

Mientras que en San Juan de la Maguana fueron reubicadas 80 familias que vivían a orillas del río San Juan aguas abajo de la presa de Sabaneta, las cuales fueron llevadas al liceo y al estadio de San Juan de la Maguana.

La CNE informó que fuertes lluvias se reportaron en Santo Domingo, San José de Ocoa, Barahona, La Caleta, Jimaní, Boca Chica y San Francisco de Macorís.

En las zonas vulnerables y de alto riesgo se puso en marcha un programa de evacuación en acción coordinada con efectivos de las Fuerzas Armadas.

De acuerdo informe del CNE hubo que usar la fuerza pasar sacar a las personas de zonas de peligro porque no querían abandonar sus casas.

La tormenta Odette continuaba anoche su movimiento lento hacia el interior del territorio dominicano por la península de Barahona, las ráfagas de viento ocasionales eran de 40 kilómetros por hora.

La trayectoria la mantenía moviéndose sobre la región central del país, durante la noche, así como se reportaron desde las estaciones de isla Saona e Higüey lluvias que pasan de los 100 milímetros, mientras que de Oviedo, Barahona, Tamayo y otras poblaciones reportaron torrenciales lluvias y ocasionales ráfagas de viento.

Los valores acumulados de precipitación que se esperan son de 125 y 250 milímetros, pero pueden aumentar hacia las zonas montañosas a medida del avance de la tormenta tropical.

Las autoridades alertaron a todas las embarcaciones a lo largo de la costa sur del país que deben permanecer en puerto debido a los vientos anormales, rompientes, penetración de mar en áreas de costa baja, desde Las Calderas, en Baní, hacia el oeste donde se producen mareas entre 2 y 4 pies sobre lo normal y olas superiores a los 8 pies.

Asimismo, se le recomendó a los espectadores alejarse de las costas, especialmente desde Las Calderas hacia el este, debido a que se están produciendo fuertes rompientes.

La Comisión Nacional de Emergencias (CNE) informó ayer que los meteorólogos esperaban que la tormenta Odette saldría del territorio nacional en la madrugada de hoy, pero que las precipitaciones continuarían todo el domingo, debido al amplio campo nuboso que acompaña al fenómeno.

Los vientos máximos de la tormenta fueron de 63 kilómetros por hora al momento de tocar la costa dominicana y se extendían a 230 kilómetros desde su centro. Meteorología esperaba anoche que la velocidad de los vientos disminuyera en la medida en que la tormenta avanza a 24 kilómetros por hora sobre tierra. A las 10:00 de la noche, cuando ya el ojo de la tormenta estaba sobre tierra, la velocidad de los vientos se estimó en 40 kilómetros por hora.

Las precipitaciones acumularán entre 225 y 250 milímetros de agua, esto es 225 litros o 250 litros por cada metro cuadrado de territorio, lo que se incrementaría en las zonas montañosas, a medida que la tormenta avanza.

La CNE mantuvo el alerta roja en todo el país debido a las condiciones atmosféricas imperantes.

El presidente Hipólito Mejía pidió ayer a la ciudadanía aceptar únicamente como ciertas las informaciones que ofrece la Comisión Nacional de Emergencia (CNE) y tomar las medidas que recomiendan las autoridades.

El mandatario presidió una reunión en el CNE, luego de suspender un recorrido por la región del Cibao.

Mejía dijo que confía en el equipo de profesionales que componen el CNE y que el gobierno hace lo que humanamente puede.

Según el último boletín del CNE, la tormenta tropical hizo impacto sobre Cabo Falso o Punta Aguja, zona centrada entre la isla Beata y bahía de Las Aguilas, en Pedernales, en el extremo sudoeste del país, mientras que se espera que saldrá por el extremo nordeste, en un área entre Cabo Francés, en Nagua, y Puerto Plata, para internarse en el océano Atlántico.

En Santo Domingo fueron suspendidas actividades sociales y al aire libre, así como vuelos internacionales que debían partir del aeropuerto Las Américas.

Los partidos de béisbol profesional en todo el país también fueron suspendidos.

Esta suspensión de actividades se reflejó en el tránsito y las empresas de transporte de pasajeros estimaron que se redujo en 70% el movimiento de vehículos.

El corresponsal Julio Gómez dijo que en Pedernales fueron desalojadas 50 familias que residían en La Feria, cerca del río Pedernales.

Las lluvias fueron copiosas y en las calles se llegaron a acumular hasta 15 pulgadas. Por los vientos huracanados que se sintieron en la zona, el servicio de energía eléctrica fue suspendido a las cinco de la tarde.

Las autoridades dijeron que hubo grandes daños en las plantaciones de sorgo en la zona de Oviedo, al sudeste de esta ciudad.

En Salcedo, el corresponsal Rafael Santos informó que se produjeron hundimientos en la carretera que une esa población con Monte Llano, en Puerto Plata, además de deslizamientos de tierra en esa zona y muchos otros lugares.

Por lo menos 2,000 refugios fueron activados con capacidad para auxiliar a 800,000 personas, informó ayer el CNE.

Miles de personas fueron evacuadas de zonas vulnerables a las inundaciones, entre ellas los residente del barrio Mesopotamia, en San Juan de la Maguana, donde cerca de 3,000 personas murieron a consecuencia de las inundaciones que produjo el huracán Georges en 1999. Fueron evacuados, se indicó, personas en los barrios cercanos a ríos y cañadas, como las zonas altas y bajas de la zona Sur del país, como Los Jaquimeyes, en Barahona, en el nordeste como el Bajo Yuna y en el norte a lo largo del río Yaque del Norte.

El presidente Mejía dijo que la población debe tomar en serio las precauciones y advirtió que muchas de las desgracias que se produjeron en 1979 por el huracán David y la tormenta Federico fueron consecuencia de que las personas se resistieron a ser evacuadas y otros tomaron como “una chercha” la presencia del fenómeno.

Dijo que lo más importante es la operación del CNE y las medidas que llamó "profilácticas", que tomaron las autoridades de socorro.

El presidente llegó a la CNE, en la Plaza de la Salud, a las 2:05 de la tarde y luego presidió una conferencia de prensa, en la que participaron, además, el vicealmirante Radhamés Lora Salcedo, el director de la Oficina Nacional de Meteorología, José Duquela; el secretario de Agricultura, Eligio Jáquez; el jefe del Cuerpo de Bomberos de Santo Domingo, Guillermo García, así como representantes de otros organismos gubernamentales y las Fuerzas Armadas.

Además el general César Ares Germán, subjefe de la Policía; Pablo Mercedes, director del Instituto de Estabilización de Precios (INESPRE); general José del Carmen Ramírez Guerrero, comandante de la Primera Brigada del Ejército; el mayor general Rafael Radhamés Ramírez Ferreira, y el coronel Francisco Ovalle Pichardo, director de Operaciones de las Fuerzas Armadas.

Sobre los accidentes de tránsito ocurridos en el sector de Juan Dolio y en el Cruce de Verón en Higüey, el mandatario dijo que

Cuatro personas murieron, 15 resultaron heridas, mientras que 18 familias perdieron sus viviendas, como consecuencia de la tormenta Odette, según los datos obtenidos por HOY.

En San Cristóbal se reportó la destrucción de once casuchas construidas a orillas del río Yubaso, mientras que en el sector La Cienaga de Santo Domingo, en la calle Eugenio Perdomo, una casa construida en un barranco cayó sobre otra, provocando heridas a una persona, que aún no ha sido identificada.

La Comisión Nacional de Emergencia informó este domingo que 859 familias fueron afectadas por la tormenta, de las cuales cinco habían quedado sin hogar.

Los muertos fueron identificados como Ondina Guzmán, de 58 años; José Manuel Disla Jiménez, de 41, en San Cristóbal, dijo la CNE en una conferencia de prensa ayer con la presencia del presidente Hipólito Mejía y el vicealmirante Radhamés Lora Salcedo.

Guzmán murió ahogada al quedar atrapada en su residencia por la crecida de una cañada, mientras que Disla Jiménez cayó en una cañada junto a su motocicleta, en el kilómetro cinco de la carretera Sánchez, de San Cristóbal.

El corresponsal de HOY en Barahona, Teuddy Sánchez, informó que otras dos personas murieron. Se les identificó sólo como “Jojó” y “Cerveza”. Los datos fueron atribuidos al síndico de Salinas, Andrés Leonel Cuevas, quien, de acuerdo con el corresponsal, dijo que ambos murieron producto por infarto.

“Jojó”, quien trabajaba en Angostura, fue arrastrado por las aguas de un arroyo junto con el camión en el que viajaba y se atribuyó su muerte al susto que recibió. Asimismo “Cerveza”, quien residía en Los Saladillos, también, según el corresponsal, murió a consecuencia de la emoción por la gran cantidad de agua que vio la tormenta Odette.

La CNE anunció que entregará hoy un informe final sobre los efectos de la tormenta.

Los heridos son Danian Norman, de 32 años; Virgilio Ciprián, de 56; y los italianos, Daniela, de 36, Gabriela Mauro, de 38, Sandi Lorenzo, de 47; Sandra Teresa, de 40; M Roberto, de 31, Alexandra, de 32, Paulino Roberto, de 44, F. Sergio, de 57, Baroni Oredana, de 51, que resultaron heridos en Banco de Arena, San Pedro de Macorís, y otras tres personas que no fueron idetificadas, que fueron atrapados por una cañada en el sector Pajarito, de San Cristóbal.

El presidente Mejía prometió que en el día de hoy enviará comisiones de la Secretaría de Agricultura y del Instituto Nacional de la Vivienda (INVI) para ayudar en las regiones en que hubo daños.

Tanto Lora Salcedo como el presidente Mejía aseguraron que los daños serán evaluados por técnicos del gobierno que serán enviados a Pedernales y Barahona para que hagan un diagnóstico de la situación.

Numerosas comunidades quedaron a oscuras debido a que postes del tendido eléctrico fueron derribados por los vientos, así como árboles y plantaciones agrícolas, sobre todo de plátano, fueron inundadas.

En ese sentido, la CNE informó que en el sector de energía, telecomunicaciones y transporte, fueron reportados daños, desde Azua hasta Barahona, donde cayó una torre de la línea de 138 kilovoltios, sobre una de 69 kilovoltios y cortó las líneas de transmisión.

Asimismo en Santo Domingo, en el sector de Bayona o Iván Guzmán Klang, se cayó un poste del tendido eléctrico.

HOY supo, además, que desde el sábado se encuentran sin energía eléctrica las comunidades de las provincias Barahona y Baoruco, mientras que en esta capital salieron de operación 18 circuitos. El suministro de la región Este también confrontó dificultad debido a las averías provocadas por la tormenta Odette.

La CNE informó que 4,759 personas fueron movilizadas y fue necesario rescatar a 72. Además 3,200 familias fueron refugiadas en casas de sus familiares y amigos para sacarlos de áreas de peligro, mientras que 722 familias fueron distribuidas en albergues tales como escuelas, clubes e iglesias.

El CNE también informó de un deslizamiento de tierra que destruyó cinco viviendas en el municipio de Polo, Barahona, pero allí no hubo lesionados.

En el barrio Mesopotamia, en San Juan de la Maguana fueron evacuadas 869 personas, pero tras el paso de la tormenta, se les permitió retornar a sus hogares.

La mayor movilización de personas por parte de los organismo de socorro se produjo en Barahona, Pedernales, San Juan de la Maguana.

La tormenta Odette causó lluvias en casi todo el país, pero el Sudoeste, el Sur, el Cibao y en Santo Domingo cayó la mayor cantidad de agua.

En Pedernales, en la Loma Paso de Sena, 25 personas fueron refugiadas en propiedades del Ejército Nacional. En esa zona el sistema eléctrico desconectado como medida de prevención.

En Maquiteria, en Santo Domingo Este, 80 viviendas fueron inundadas, mientras que 123 estaban en la misma condición, en Villa Mella.

Similar situación se le presentó a familias de Masipedro y Santo Domingo Oeste.

La dirección de Meteorología informó ayer que la tormenta Odette tomó rumbo hacia el Nordeste luego que atravesó el país y llegó a aguas del océano Atlántico.

El fenómeno se fusionó con un frente frío y se transformó en un fenómeno extratropical.

Sin embargo, todavía Meteorología espera que se produzcan lluvias sobre algunas regiones del país, las que podrían producir deslizamientos de tierra e inundaciones.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos de la tormenta eran ayer de 70 kilómetros, con ráfagas más fuertes. La tormenta se movía ayer hacia el noreste a 32 kilómetros por hora, pero la velocidad de traslación podría aumentar en las próximas 24 horas, de acuerdo al boletín 12 del Centro Nacional de huracanes de Miami.

Tormenta provocó 10 muertes, dañó 859 viviendas y afectó electricidad 4:22:00 AM

La tormenta Odette provocó la muerte de diez personas, lesiones a catorce, "graves daños" en la agricultura y en las redes eléctricas y afectó las viviendas de 859 familias, de las cuales 34 fueron destruidas.

La Comisión Nacional de Emergencias (CNE) rindió un informe final en el que dispuso la desactivación de todas las alertas luego del fenómeno.

Informó que los mayores daños se registraron en Barahona, Baoruco, San Juan de la Maguana, Duvergé, Bonao, Monte Cristi, San Cristóbal, Peravia, Azua, San Francisco de Macorís, Puerto Plata y esta capital.

El coronel Ramón Francisco Rodríguez Sánchez al hablar a nombre del CNE, identificó a las víctimas como Ondina Guzmán, de 58 años, quien murió ahogada en Yaguate, San Cristóbal, y, a José Manuel Disla, del kilómetro 5 de la carretera Sánchez, al caer su motocicleta en una cañada.

Informó, además, que en Cenoví, San Francisco de Macorís, murió ahogado Tomás Sánchez, de 40 años, cuando trataba de cruzar el río Cenoví.

También perecieron Miriam Reyes, en Barahona, así como Reyes y Alex Almonte Rosario, al desplomarse una vivienda en Sosúa, Puerto Plata.

El coronel Rodríguez Sánchez también expresó que en Navarrete y en Salinas, Barahona, respectivamente, murieron dos personas ahogadas, las que aún no habían sido identificadas. Tampoco se habían identificado otros dos que murieron en Peravia.

Dijo que el fenómeno atmosférico también dejó graves daños en las redes eléctricas como las de Azua-Barahona de 38 y 69 kilovoltios, así como el tramo carretero entre Ocoa, Sabana Larga y Arroyo Toro-Masipedro, las cuales están en rehabilitación.

Igualmente informó el CNE que las fuertes crecidas de ríos, cañadas y arroyos, dejaron varios puentes y carretera destruidas, así como varias comunidades incomunicadas.

MEJíA HABLARá A LA POBLACIóN
La tormenta Odette entrará al país en la mañana de hoy
ADRIANA PEGUERO
SANTO DOMINGO.-
La Comisión Nacional de Emergencia (CNE) alertó anoche que la tormenta tropical Odette tocará suelo dominicano en horas de la mañana, antes del medio día, por lo que reiteró a los residentes en las costas desde la Isla Saona hasta Pedernales, que deben tomar las precauciones necesarias.
El presidente Hipólito Mejía visitará hoy el centro de informacion del CNE para alertar a la población sobre las condiciones del tiempo y garantizar la seguridad nacional, en virtud de las medidas preventivas tomadas. El presidente de la CNE, vicealmirante Radhamés Lora Salcedo, informó que dos mil refugios con una capacidad para albergar 850 mil personas, fueron habilitados en las zonas vulnerables a inundaciones y derrumbes, y que se tiene en almacén alimentos suficientes para abastecer a los daminificados.
No obstante, pidió a la ciudadanía no esperar el último momento para pedir ayuda, sino trasladarse a la casa de familiares y amigos antes de que las inundaciones les sorprendan.
Asimismo, reportó que fueron reactivadas todas las fuerzas de reacción de búsqueda y rescate de personas en las comunidades que resulten afectadas con la tormenta, así como del plan de evacuación de familias en zonas de peligro.
La Comisión Nacional de Emergencia y el Comité de Operaciones de Embalses en Emergencia fueron declarados en sesión permanente, con la misión de vigilar el comportamiento de las presas y evitar desbordamientos lamentables.
En tanto que el vocero del organismo, José Luis Germán, informó que las fuertes lluvias pueden ocasionar crecidas de ríos, cañadas y arroyos, y repentinos deslizamientos de tierra en las zonas montañosas.
En el boletín número cinco, dado anoche a las 10:00, se registró que la tormenta Odette disminuyó ligeramente su velocidad de traslación, pero que su rumbo se mantiene hacia el Noreste del país.
La CNE prevee que desde esa posición y movimiento Odette colocará su centro próximo a la costa Suroeste en la mañana de hoy y que habrán fuertes lluvias que provocarán inundaciones en numerosos puntos del país.
La tormenta fue localizada, a la hora del boletín, en los 15.6 latitud Norte y 73.1 longitud Oeste, a una distancia aproximada de 290 kilómetros al Suroeste de Isla Beata.
El fenómeno se mueve a 16 kilómetros por hora, mientras que la intensidad de los vientos se ha mantenido en los 85 KPH y los vientos de tormenta tropical se extienden fuera de su centro unos 230 kilómetros. Se alerta, también, que las pequeñas y frágiles embarcaciones, a lo largo de la costa sur del país deben permenecer en puerto, ya que las condiciones del mar no son propicias e irán deteriorándose mientras Odette se deplace durante la mañana de hoy.

La tormenta Odette azota la región Suroeste del país
Hasta la medianoche de ayer se reportaron 11 heridos; no ha habido muertes
JOSÉ BUJOSA MIESES
YANET FÉLIZ Y RAMÓN PÉREZ REYES
SANTO DOMINGO.

La tormenta tropical Odette azotó el Suroeste del país con las constantes lluvias y ráfagas de viento, con un saldo de 11 heridos, hasta la medianoche de ayer, daños a la agricultura y a la propiedad privada por el derribamiento de árboles y del tendido eléctrico.
Debido a las condiciones del tiempo 775 familias han sido afectadas, a nivel nacional, 879 personas se encuentran en albergues y más de 3,600 han sido evacuadas, según el reporte de la Comisión Nacional de Emergencia (CNE).
El vicealmirante Radhamés Lora Salcedo, presidente de dicho organismo, al ofrecer la información dijo que se mantiene la alerta roja desde Cabo Engaño a la frontera, para los pescadores, débiles embarcaciones y residentes aledaños a presas, ríos y cañadas.

Las demarcaciones más afectadas hasta anoche eran las provincias de San Juan de la Maguana, donde fue necesario aumentar el desagüe de la presa Sabaneta para evitar inundaciones repentinas, principalmente en Mesopotamia; Bahoruco, en Tamayo y Villa Jaragua, en Pedernales, Azua, Neiba y la Sierra de Martín García. Según el informe de la Oficina Nacional de Meteorología, el fenómeno natural se encontraba a las 11:00 de la noche en las vecindades de la Sierra de Bahoruco, a unos 40 kilómetros de Barahona, mientras toda la región Suroeste y hacia el Este de dicha zona, incluyendo la ciudad de Santo Domingo, se encontraba bajo los efectos de torrenciales aguaceros, tormentas eléctricas y ráfagas de vientos superiores a los 60 kilómetros por hora.
Odette se mueve hacia el Norte y Noroeste del país a unos 11 kilómetros por hora, con un gradual giro hacia el Noreste, aumentando lentamente su velocidad de traslación. Meteorología proyectó que de continuar con ese movimiento ubicará su centro, en la madrugada de hoy, en la parte central del país, esperándose que comience a salir del territorio entre Cabo Francés Viejo y Puerto Plata, para luego internarse en aguas abiertas del Océano Atlántico. Todas las embarcaciones a lo largo de las costas del Sur del país deben permanecer en puerto debido a los vientos anormales, rompientes penetraciones de mar en áreas de costa baja, desde Calderas hacia el Oeste, en donde se están produciendo mareas de entre dos y cuatro pies sobre lo normal, y olas con valores superiores a los ocho pies, próximo al área de impacto.

El Sur y Suroeste

En Pedernales más de 50 familias fueron refugiadas por las lluvias, los vientos afectaron la producción de sorgo en el municipio de Oviedo, algunos árboles fueron derribados y las olas subieron a cinco pies de altura.
El corresponsal Odalis Pérez reportó que alrededor de 30 refugios fueron habilitados en la zona, incluyendo escuelas públicas, casas y locales, para trasladar las familias desprevenidas.
En tanto que en Barahona, Benny Rodríguez informó que decenas de personas residentes en zonas vulnerables fueron evacuadas de sus casas y llevadas a los centros de refugios, previamente identificados por las autoridades.
Numerosas familias repararon sus frágiles viviendas desde tempranas horas del sábado, mientras los colmados y supermercados lucieron abarrotados durante todo el día, en busca de productos comestibles, velas, fósforos, pilas y linternas.
En San Juan de la Maguana, debido al desagüe de la presa Sabaneta, en el sector Mesopotania, por donde pasa el río San Juan, más de 300 familias abandonaron sus viviendas; algunas se trasladaron a donde familiares y otras a refugios para evitar inundaciones y pérdidas humanas.
Tomás Aquino Díaz, corresponsal de San Juan de la Maguana, reveló que algunas familias que se resistían a salir de la zona de peligro fueron obligadas, por los miembros del Ejército Nacional, abandonar el lugar la zona de peligro, y recibieron ayuda para trasladarse con sus ajuares.
Mientras, en la provincia Bahoruco los aguaceros inundaron las principales vías, las siembras de plátanos y guineos se dañaron y numerosos árboles cayeron al pavimento ocasionando daños a algunas propiedades.
El reporte fue hecho por Faustino Reyes Díaz, quien indicó, también, que los daños provocados por la tormenta se sint